We are almost the second year into this pandemic and going on THIRD! Who would have thought? All the woes and hopes of the average citizen, all the dreams of finally having a COVID-free 2021 were crushed not long after we stepped into the new year but to add insult to the injury -- this year is ENDING -- but you know what isn't, COVID-FRICKIN-19! All this spectacle had me thinking - is COVID'19 truly only a modern pandemic?
Most Fatal Pandemic in History | 14th Century
Now to add more perspective to this rather elusive statement -- we all know of countless pandemics that have ridden this world in the past -- take, for example, the bubonic plague (in other words, the black plague). This plague primarily originated in Europe, central/east Asia (also called Eurasia), and some of North Africa during the 14th century. It hit the hardest in Europe and wiped out MORE than half of its population. The plague was caused by a very deadly bacteria called Yersinia pestis and was characterized by symptoms such as fever, headache, vomiting, and swollen lymph nodes. This plague alone killed around 75-200 Million people in Eurasia and North African regions, taking 60% of the European population under its fatal claws in just 8 years. In Addition to this, it "single-handedly" reduced the world population from 475 Million to 350-375 Million.
Now, what exactly made this bacteria so darn deadly?! Let's start with its mortality rate which was a whopping 50-70% for untreated cases. For treated cases, it was 10% to 15% which was still fairly high. And considering the fact that you would have to be either rich or really lucky to get proper treatment during those times just adds on to why the death rate was so high during this Pandemic. Additionally, it was extremely contagious and the fact that it was spread by flies did not help. Flies like to fly and with that, they took the bacteria to places -- humans traveling on foot could not -- and they took them fast. The continents that were however spared from this deadly misery were the ones separated by geographical barriers (America, Australia, etc.)
The bottom line is: The Plague had high mortality, the regions affected were connected and the medical science was neither developed nor was the treatment readily available. A perfect recipe for a long-term huge natural disaster -- A Pandemic.
Modern Pandemic | 21st Century
Now let's talk about what we are dealing with today -- SARS Corona Virus 2 also called COVID '19. It originated in Wuhun, China, and is characterized by symptoms such as fever, cough, headache, loss of breath, or loss of sense of smell/taste. Though it originated in Asia, it soon spread worldwide -- from Europe to America to Australia -- like a wildfire. And by today, 5th September 2021 -- it has successfully infected about 218 Million people and took the lives of 4 Million people -- that too, in less than 2 years. And despite the medical science being 1000 (or perhaps more) times more developed than it was in the 14th century, the defense against the virus only came down to precautionary measures such as social distancing and Vaccines that may be rendered somewhat ineffective as the virus progressively mutates (Note: Please do get yourself Vaccinated still).
Now, what makes this particular virus so deadly? Your first bet would be the mortality rate because that is always the focal point that (kind of) specifies the deadliness of a virus. Well, According to WHO the mortality rate for COVID '19 is 3.4% (it is always important to note that these ratios are never "law" and fall more into the category of a theory and are subject to change as more statistics pour in). Now 3.4% is no competition for the mortality rate of 70-50% of black plague (again, in theory). Could it be the contagiousness? We know the COVID '19 is highly contagious and is transmitted horizontally (from a human to human) much like the black plague, except in the latter case we had flies partaking heavily in the spread of the virus. Again by any comparison, black plague just sounds like a way better candidate for initiating a Pandemic than COVID '19 does. Right? False.
In retrospect, COVID '19 spread faster than any disease would have had, centuries ago. This disease was able to turn from an epidemic to a pandemic and then a global Pandemic in a matter of months -- due to one very simple and rather innocuous ingredient -- Air Travel. No surprise there right? Traveling from one corner of the world to another is a piece of cake in this century and so is the spread of such a contagious virus. And as the number of the hosts for the virus multiplied, the seemingly "low" mortality rate did not start looking that low. Perhaps, if this virus was to originate in 14th century when technology was not as advanced and when traveling through air was something the pedants of the time dreamt of -- this virus wouldn't even have grown past the stage of an endemic.
Conclusively, COVID '19 is the perfect blueprint for what I call the "modern" Pandemic. It was able to sustain itself in the 21st century only due to the sheer development of this era. And for what it is worth, maybe this is just the beginning of such an environmentally induced predicament.
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